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2020 Election Data

Maps and graphs of county-level federal elections results, by state and level of rurality.

RDI is publishing data to inform early analysis of the 2020 Presidential and US Senate results. These maps, graphs, and county-level data are helpful in understanding results in small cities and rural areas.

The data shows that Biden improved his margins in small and medium metros and the surrounding rural areas compared to Clinton in all five key Presidential states where RDI invested. Trump also saw a surge of new rural votes in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; however, the increase in Democratic margins outside of the major urban centers was decisive. We look forward to hearing what insights you gain from browsing these resources.

Before diving in, please note the following important points.

  • There may be errors in the data. If you suspect one, significant (e.g. “Biden wins Idaho!”) or moderate (e.g. data for two counties reversed), please contact jabe@haycanyon.com.
  • On most pages, you can select individual, multiple, or all states. Rolling over a county map or bubble with your mouse will display a pop-up with more detailed information.
  • Most of the graphics permit you to filter by type of county according to the Daily Yonder’s (DY) 7-level rural-urban categorization. Some also allow you to filter by the Rural-Urban Continuum (RUC) 9-level categorization. Both are defined below. While we generally prefer the DY system, neither is perfect so we’ve included both in most cases.

 

daily-yonder-county-categories

 

Graphics

 

 

 

  • Two metrics for change in Presidential Democratic performance. This side-by-side heat map compares two different metrics for Biden’s performance versus Clinton’s.  The right map is the same as that described immediately above.  The left map shows the change between the % of votes captured by Biden and that captured by Clinton.  Differences between the maps are due to the much lower Other/3rd Party vote in 2020.  In many counties, Biden got a higher % than Clinton even as the Trump-Biden gap exceeded the Trump-Clinton gap. (View Alaska)
  • Presidential votes margins by county category. These side-by-side 'waterfall' graphs show, on the left, the Biden-Trump votes margin, and, on the right, how Biden over/under-performed Clinton in votes margin, cumulatively by county category.

 

 

 

 

 

  • US Senate Democrat over/under-performance versus Biden. This bubble graph shows, on the horizontal axis, the Biden-Trump % margin and, on the vertical axis, how the US Senate Democratic candidate over/under-performed that margin.  Thus bubbles to the right/left are where Biden led/trailed Trump and bubbles on top/below are where the US Senate Democratic candidate over/under-performed Biden.